13 SEC teams in ESPN's Week 5 bowl projections — who's left out?

ESPN experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach updated their bowl projections after Week 5, and the new edition features 13 of the 16 SEC squads, according to www.saturdaydownsouth.com.
That leaves Arkansas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt as the only SEC teams not mentioned in the postseason picture.
The specific bowl matchups are projections, not final selections.
The Alabama Crimson Tide, LSU Tigers, Georgia Bulldogs, Texas Longhorns and Ole Miss Rebels each received at least one vote to make the College Football Playoff in the updated projections.
WHO'S LEFT OUT AND WHY IT MATTERS

Arkansas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt are the only SEC teams not included in ESPN's Week 5 bowl projections, according to www.saturdaydownsouth.com. That leaves them outside the postseason picture entirely as the college football calendar pushes deeper into the fall.
The source does not provide reasons for their exclusion. It is not confirmed why those three programs were left off while the other 13 SEC squads landed somewhere in the projections.
Missing the projection matters because these teams are not currently expected to reach a bowl game. That would end their seasons short of the postseason, cutting off an extra game and the practice time that comes with it.
With Week 6 already underway, bowl season is approaching quickly. Each week of results can reshuffle the board, and Saturday's outcomes will carry extra weight for those three programs still trying to play their way into the conversation.
The specific bowl matchups are projections, not final selections.

THE PROJECTED BOWL GAMES FOR EACH SEC TEAM
ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach each see Alabama reaching the College Football Playoff, though they disagree on the opponent. Bonagura projects the Crimson Tide in a First Round matchup against No. 10 LSU, while Schlabach slots Alabama against No. 12 Boise State.
Georgia lands in the Playoff Quarterfinals in both projections. Bonagura has the Bulldogs facing No. 8 BYU, while Schlabach matches them with No. 7 Indiana.
Texas also appears in the Playoff picture for both experts. Bonagura projects the Longhorns in a First Round game against No. 12 Boise State, while Schlabach places Texas in the Quarterfinals against No. 9 Oregon.
LSU is the fourth SEC team projected into the Playoff field. Bonagura has the Tigers playing Alabama in the First Round, while Schlabach projects LSU against No. 6 Ohio State.

Ole Miss splits between the two experts. Bonagura sends the Rebels to the Gator Bowl against Wake Forest, while Schlabach projects them into a First Round Playoff game versus No. 7 Indiana.
The remaining SEC teams land in a variety of bowl games. Auburn draws the Gasparilla Bowl against South Florida in Bonagura's projection, with Schlabach picking the Birmingham Bowl versus North Carolina. Florida is projected to the ReliaQuest Bowl against Wisconsin or the Gator Bowl versus SMU.
Kentucky appears in the Birmingham Bowl against Tulane or the Music City Bowl versus Minnesota. Mississippi State is pegged for the Music City Bowl against Penn State or the ReliaQuest Bowl versus Nebraska.
Mizzou projects to the Liberty Bowl against Baylor or the Las Vegas Bowl versus USC. Oklahoma gets the reverse pairing — Las Vegas Bowl against USC or Liberty Bowl against Baylor.
Tennessee lands in the Citrus Bowl in both projections, against Nebraska or Iowa. Texas A&M is projected to the Texas Bowl versus Kansas State or Oklahoma State.

These are projections, not final bowl assignments. The actual matchups will be determined over the coming weeks.
THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE PROJECTIONS
The numbers behind the projections start with the big one: 13 of the SEC’s 16 teams appear in ESPN’s Week 5 bowl projections, according to www.saturdaydownsouth.com. That leaves only Arkansas, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt on the outside.
Five SEC programs received at least one College Football Playoff vote: Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss. The Playoff field, however, is far more selective than the overall bowl picture — and the projections split those teams across different rounds.
Alabama is the only SEC team with a concrete championship figure attached. Kalshi gives the Crimson Tide a 12% chance to win the national title, as mentioned in the source. That number comes from Kalshi, not ESPN, and has not been confirmed by the network.

The mix of destinations reflects the conference’s depth. Beyond the Playoff and New Year’s Six slots, SEC teams are projected across the Citrus, Gator, Liberty, Las Vegas, Music City, ReliaQuest, Texas, Birmingham, and Gasparilla Bowls.
Georgia and Texas both land in the Playoff Quarterfinals in one projection apiece, while Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss appear in First Round matchups in at least one version. The spread shows how tightly bunched the SEC’s top tier is after five weeks.
The projections are a snapshot, not a guarantee. With 13 of 16 teams in the mix, the SEC’s bowl math still has room to shift.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The projections are a weekly moving target. ESPN experts Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach update their bowl outlook every week, according to www.saturdaydownsouth.com, with the regular season already entering Week 6.
The next update will likely come after Week 6 games. The exact date of that release is not specified in the source, so fans should expect the revised projections sometime early next week.
With 13 SEC teams currently in the mix, the biggest swing factor is the Playoff race. Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Texas and Ole Miss each received at least one vote to make the field, and any shakeup among that group could ripple through the entire SEC bowl picture.
For the three teams left out — Arkansas, South Carolina and Vanderbilt — the path back into the projections starts with winning this weekend. One upset could be enough to change their fate when the experts reconvene.
For the latest news and updates on your team, your conference and the college football landscape, subscribe to the Saturday Football Newsletter.
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