Big 12 Facing One-Bid CFP Again? Bowl Projections Shift

The Big 12 is projected to be a one-bid conference for the College Football Playoff again this year, according to collegefootballnews.com's Week 6 bowl projections.

The ACC is in the same boat, projected to get just one team into the CFP — the champion, if it's Miami.

If that holds, no Power Four conference will be more affected than the Big 12. The reason, per collegefootballnews.com: the Big 12 will play up, meaning the second-best Big 12 team might line up against the fifth-best Big Ten team in the bowl pecking order.

These are projections, not decisions. The exact CFP selection committee calls are not confirmed, and the picture is subject to change with plenty of variables still in play.

WHAT HAPPENED

collegefootballnews.com released its Week 6 bowl projections and College Football Playoff predictions, and the headline call is stark: the Big 12 is projected to be a one-bid conference for the CFP again.

The ACC is in the same spot, projected to get just one team in — the champion, if it's Miami.

The site flags the Hawaii Bowl as the hardest bowl to figure out, because it throws a whole slew of other things out of whack. Hawaii likely won't be bowl eligible, and UNLV, New Mexico, and North Dakota State all play in Honolulu during the Mountain West regular season, complicating any projected matchup.

The other gigantic piece of the puzzle, per collegefootballnews.com, is Michigan. ESPN will want the Wolverines in a big bowl, but there's a shot Michigan will have to fight just to get to 6-6.

Michigan's final record and bowl eligibility are not confirmed.

The projections also note that ESPN won't necessarily add more bowls if too many teams become eligible — instead, it will keep those teams at the ready if others can't go. That variable, plus the CFP's ripple effects, is why the Big 12's second-best team could end up playing the fifth-best Big Ten team in the pecking order.