Statcast says Ty France's roof-ball wasn't a homer. But maybe it was.

Ty France hit a ball in the ninth inning Saturday night that struck a roof cable at Milwaukee’s American Family Field. The Padres trailed 3-2 in the opener of the NL Division Series, and the ball had a chance to change everything.

The play was ruled an out. Milwaukee’s ground rules state that a fair ball striking the roof or anything attached to it is in play, so the ricochet off the cable didn’t save France.

Statcast, MLB’s publicly available data tool, says the debate is closed. Even without the cable, France’s ball would not have been a go-ahead home run. It would have been a flyout. A particularly crushing one, but a flyout nonetheless.

France hit the ball 105.3 mph with a 49-degree launch angle. Since Statcast began tracking balls in play like this in 2015, only two other players have produced that combination, and both were outs.

The Padres lost 3-2. The play didn’t decide the game alone, but it loomed large over a one-run defeat.

Yet the case of France’s non-homer might not be as conclusive as Statcast suggests. The public data says flyout, but there’s reason to wonder whether that’s the whole story.

WHAT STATCAST SAYS

Statcast’s public data is clear on the raw numbers: France hit the ball 105.3 mph with a 49-degree launch angle. Since 2015, only two other players have produced that exact combination, and both were outs.

A wider sample tells a similar story. In the Statcast era, there have been 37 fair balls between 105-106 mph and 48-50 degrees of launch angle. On average, they traveled 321 feet. Thirty-two of them were outs. Three were home runs, each barely clearing the fence at an average of 349 feet.

The two extra-base hits in that group are worth a closer look. Abraham Almonte’s 2017 triple was essentially an error — the outfielder lost the ball in the sun and it dropped next to him. Rafael Devers’ 2021 ball hit the roof in Tampa and was awarded a double under the ground rules there, which differ from Milwaukee’s.

In Milwaukee, a ball that strikes the roof or anything attached to it stays in play. That’s why France was ruled out despite the ricochet off the cable.