ESPN insider says CFP committee would rank Kentucky in top 25 despite AP snub
Heather Dinich, ESPN’s College Football Playoff insider, said Kentucky would be ranked in the CFP top 25 despite being dropped from the AP poll. Dinich placed the Wildcats at No. 17 in her own top 25, which she ranks based on how the committee would vote, not her personal assessment.
“I have Kentucky No. 17 in my top 25. @UKFootball is no. 5 in ESPN strength of record metric. Two road wins vs SEC teams. I rank 25 teams based on what I think the CFP committee would do. And KY would probably be in,” Dinich tweeted, per www.saturdaydownsouth.com.
Her projection is her opinion, not an official CFP ranking. The real committee’s first top 25 won’t be revealed until Nov. 3.
Dinich’s comments come after Kentucky fell out of the AP Top 25 on Sunday despite winning Week 5. The AP voters were not impressed by the Wildcats’ overtime victory at South Carolina, a 35-34 walk-off decided on a two-point conversion after Kentucky trailed 17-0.
The disconnect between the two polls boils down to resume versus recency. Dinich points to Kentucky’s No. 5 standing in ESPN’s strength of record metric and two road wins against SEC teams as evidence the committee would see the Wildcats differently.
WILDCATS' WILD WIN
The scene in Columbia looked grim early. Kentucky fell into a 17-0 hole against South Carolina in Week 5, and the Wildcats’ offense had no answers.
But Kentucky rallied, clawing back to force overtime against the Gamecocks. In the extra period, head coach Mark Stoops rolled the dice and went for a two-point conversion, walking it off with a 35-34 victory.
The win should have been a statement. Instead, AP voters dropped Kentucky out of the top 25 on Sunday.
Big Blue Nation was understandably upset by the decision, according to www.saturdaydownsouth.com. The Wildcats had just won a road SEC game in dramatic fashion, yet the pollsters were apparently not impressed.
The disconnect is clear: Kentucky’s resume says one thing, but the AP’s recency bias says another. The Wildcats’ No. 5 ranking in ESPN’s strength of record metric and two road wins against SEC teams make a stronger case than the poll suggests.
For now, Kentucky has to live with the AP snub. The real test comes in Week 6, when the Wildcats host No. 10 LSU in Lexington.
THE NUMBERS BEHIND THE CASE
The numbers back Dinich’s stance. Kentucky sits at No. 5 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, per her tweet — a figure that measures how difficult a team’s path has been relative to an average top-25 squad. The Wildcats also own two road wins against SEC teams, a category the committee has historically valued heavily.
The most recent of those wins required a comeback for the ages. Kentucky trailed South Carolina 17-0 in Week 5 before rallying to force overtime, per www.saturdaydownsouth.com. In the extra period, the Wildcats went for two and walked off with a 35-34 victory.
That kind of resilience, combined with the strength of record number, gives the committee a reason to overlook what the AP voters did. The AP Top 25 will remain the rankings of reference for the next few weeks, according to the source, but it carries no weight in the CFP conversation.
The first CFP Top 25 of the season arrives Nov. 3. Until then, Kentucky’s case rests on those two road wins and a strength of record metric that puts the Wildcats ahead of nearly every team in the country — even if the AP doesn’t see it that way.
REACTION FROM BIG BLUE NATION
Big Blue Nation was understandably upset that Kentucky fell out of the AP Top 25 on Sunday despite picking up a Week 5 win, per www.saturdaydownsouth.com. The anger makes sense: the Wildcats dug out of a 17-0 hole, forced overtime, went for two and walked off 35-34 at South Carolina.
AP voters were apparently not impressed and dropped Kentucky from their poll. But ESPN’s College Football Playoff insider Heather Dinich sees it differently. She stated that, based on her knowledge of the CFP selection committee, Kentucky would be ranked in that top 25.
Dinich placed the Wildcats at No. 17 in her own top 25, which she builds by ranking teams based on how the committee would rank them — not her personal assessment. She pointed to Kentucky sitting at No. 5 in ESPN’s strength of record metric and two road wins against SEC teams.
Dinich’s comments offer a counterpoint to the AP voters’ decision. The source notes that the CFP top 25 will overtake the AP poll as the most important rankings once October progresses. For the next few weeks, though, the AP remains the reference point.
No direct quotes from Kentucky players or coaches are included in the source, so the program's internal reaction has not been confirmed. What is confirmed is that the committee's first rankings arrive Nov. 3 — and Dinich believes Kentucky will be in them.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Kentucky has a prime opportunity to get back in the AP Top 25 in Week 6. The Wildcats host No. 10 LSU at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday in Lexington.
A win over a top-10 opponent would give AP voters a far more difficult argument to ignore. It would also reinforce the case Dinich expects the CFP committee to make.
For the next few weeks, though, the AP Top 25 will serve as the rankings of reference. The first CFP Top 25 of the season will be unveiled on Nov. 3, and that will shift the conversation.
Will Stein’s Wildcats will look to build on their Week 5 win, where they erased a 17-0 deficit and walked off South Carolina 35-34 in overtime. That comeback proved the roster’s resilience; Saturday offers a chance to prove it against a ranked opponent.
The AP poll may have dropped Kentucky, but the committee’s first rankings arrive in under a month. Dinich’s projection of No. 17 suggests the Wildcats’ resume already holds up to the criteria that will matter most.
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